Unlike slot machines, Blackjack rounds are not independent. Some cards are good for the player. Some cards are good for the dealer. Thus by keeping track of cards that have already been dealt, one can obtain advantage in Blackjack. Keeping track of cards as they are being dealt may seem challenging, but it is not as difficult as it appears.
High cards like10s and Aces are good for players. Small cards like 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are good for the dealer. The reasons are
· Blackjack pays 3:2 for player. So, a higher concentration of Aces and 10s helps player.
· Having excess 10s in the deck helps him when he doubles.
· Dealer is forced to hit when his hand total is between 12 and 16. Having high cards will mean he will bust more often. On the other hand player can stand on his hand.
You don’t have to keep track of every single card that comes out of the deck. Cards are assigned a value. As cards keep coming out of the deck, you keep adding the value of the card to your running count. For example 10 may be assigned a value of -1. Running count starts at 0. As a 10 comes out of the deck, you will add -1 to your running count. Cards that are good for the players (like Ace and 10) are assigned a negative value. Cards that are bad for the players are assigned a positive value. If the count starts going up then the deck is becoming more favorable to the player. When the count is high, player should bet high. When count is low, player should bet low.
Running count gives an indication of how favorable the remaining cards remaining. If count is high, the cards remaining are rich in 10s and Aces. But before using the running count, it should be converted to true count. True count is defined as running count divided by number of decks that have not been dealt. For example, if running count is 6 and number of decks that have not been dealt is 2, then true count is 3. If true count is above a certain threshold, then player should start increasing his bets.
For example, consider the following card value assignments:
A: -1, 2: +1, 3: +1, 4: +1, 5: +1 6: +1, 7: 0, 8:0, 9:0, 10: -1
|
Cards dealt so far |
Running count |
|
A |
-1 |
|
Queen |
-1 |
|
A, King |
-2 |
|
7, 8 |
0 |
|
2, 7, 5 |
2 |
|
2, Queen, 8, 3, 4 |
2 |
Running count to true count conversion examples:
|
Running Count |
Decks remaining |
True count |
|
+4 |
2 |
2 |
|
+1 |
3 |
0.3 |
|
-6 |
2.5 |
-2.4 |
|
-10 |
0.5 |
-20 |
|
7 |
5 |
1.4 |
Card counting is most useful for modifying your betting strategy. When the true count goes beyond a certain value, it indicates that the cards remaining are favorable to the player. Player must increase his bet amount. When the count drops below the value, player must decrease his bet amount. Thus by betting high under favorable conditions and low under unfavorable conditions, player can get the edge at Blackjack.
You can modify your playing strategy based on the count. For example if you have 12 against dealer’s 3, basic strategy tells you to hit. But if the count is high, it indicates that there is a higher concentration of 10s than normal. As a result, your chances of catching a 10 and busting increases. Also, dealer has a higher chance of busing. So, when the count goes beyond a certain index, you will deviate from the basic strategy and stand instead of hitting.
Per basic strategy, one must always decline insurance. But if the concentration of 10s increases beyond a certain value, it may be advantageous to take insurance. So, when the count increases beyond a certain index, player must take insurance.
Best method to count cards is by cancellation. For example if you see a 10 and 6 they will cancel each other off, because 10 has a value of -1 and 6 has a value of +1. When the initial cards are dealt, it is better to wait for the dealer to deal all cards. In this way, you don’t have keep watching the cards. After the players and dealer receive their 2 cards, cancel as many cards as possible. Update your running count for the remaining cards. As the dealer starts dealing additional cards, keep updating your running count. When it is time to make either a betting, playing or insurance decision, convert your running count to true count. Compare the true count against index values and make appropriate changes to your strategy.